Episode Transcript
[00:00:06] Welcome to the John Lothian News Daily Update podcast for November 1, 2024. I am your host John Lothian. This podcast is brought to you by John Lothian News, the home of Markets Wiki and Markets Wiki Education. Thank you for joining us. Here are the hits and takes comments from today's JLN the biggest U.S. futures exchange by volume yesterday was Forecast X.
[00:00:33] Volume is a traditional measure of size and Forecast X traded 32.815 million pairs or contracts yesterday on 108.5000 trades. It has been quite the week for the event prediction exchange as on Tuesday volume was 31,000 trades with 10.914 million pairs or contracts traded. Wednesday saw 67.33,000 trades and 21.820 million pairs contracts traded. For the record, forecast X's volume is based on $1 trades, not the huge notional value of the CME Group or other exchanges contracts, but based on pure volume. It was the largest US Futures exchange yesterday.
[00:01:32] On Wednesday I interviewed Thomas Petterfy, the founder, chairman and CEO of Interactive Brokers and the man who came up with the idea for Forecast X. I wanted to know more about the exchange, the contracts and why Petterfy was doing this. You will find out in the interview, which you can see with a link in today's newsletter. Crypto.com announced its acquisition of Watchdog Capital LLC, an SEC registered broker, dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, allowing it to offer equities and equity options to US traders. CEO Chris Marzalek emphasized Crypto.com's commitment to integrating traditional and digital finance responsibly under proper regulatory frameworks. This acquisition will enhance Crypto.com's services, enabling US users to engage with stocks and options. This move follows other moves such as launching regulated crypto derivatives and global retail services.
[00:02:44] Bloomberg reports US oil production reached a new record of 13.4 million barrels per day in August with Texas and New Mexico hitting all time highs in output from the Permian Basin.
[00:03:01] Here are the headlines from in front of Fow's paywall from some recent stories. CBO raises guidance after 13% boost to third quarter derivatives revenue Marix to raise capital through bond deal after string of acquisitions CME cites international demand for Henry Hub Open interest spike Mizuho connects clients to Avax Exchange analysis Open interest growth a positive for energy volumes and analysis BGC Chief Lutnick wants more clients on FMX futures I'm in Valdosta, Georgia today and will be headed to Chicago later today, though I doubt I will make the 14 hour trip in one day. We shall see. By the way, I made it Our most read stories from our previous edition of JLN Options were Meet the Wall street bigwig who has become Trump's headhunter in chief. From the Wall Street Journal From Punch Cards to Crypto One Man's Journey through Wall Street's Tech Revolution from John lothian news and US election 2024 what the options Data says from CBO subscribe to the free GLN Options newsletter with a link in today's jln. Here are more stories from the First Read section of today's JLN. Here's that video Thomas Petterfy on ForkaStx building a buy Only market to transform event trading and crowd based insights Thomas Petterfy, founder of Interactive Brokers, shares insights into his latest venture Forecast X, an innovative platform designed to create a new market for event based contracts. In an interview with John Lothian News Forecast X provides traders a unique buy only model where participants take yes or no positions on the probability of future events, challenging traditional speculation while aiming to yield broader societal insights.
[00:05:24] Watch this video on johnlethiannews.com and then here's an entry from our Path to Electronic Trading series.
[00:05:35] From Punch Cards to Crypto One Man's Journey Through Wall Street's Tech Revolution John Rapa never imagined his part time college job would lead to a front row seat for Wall Street's technological transformation. But over five decades he's witnessed the industry's evolution from paper tickets to blockchain, and he's still grappling with how to explain Bitcoin to his grandparents. You watch this video on john lothianws.com here's an entry from CIBA US Election 2024 what options data says from Henry Schwartz Listed options serve multiple purposes in today's financial markets, from basic hedging and income overlays to quantitative investing strategies, and even as the foundation for an entire ecosystem of structured products and defined outcome exchange trad funds.
[00:06:34] Another crucial benefit comes from the insights the options markets provide into forward looking expectations and sentiment, aiding decision making for traders and non traders alike. A unique feature of the US election taking place on November 5, 2024 is the availability of index options with daily expiration cycles in the days leading up to and after the event. While the POP Placebo Volatility Index, the VIX Index gauges market volatility expectations on a 30 day time horizon, daily options enable volatility estimates at a finer granularity, making it possible to isolate market expectations around a significant event like the election.
[00:07:27] My comment this data has been put through the Schwarzatron and analyzed. Here are the results.
[00:07:35] Here's a press release from the Justice Department Justice Department announces settlement and consent decree with the Chicago Cubs over alleged Americans with Disabilities Act Violations at Wrigley Field the Justice Department today announced a settlement and proposed consent decree with the Chicago Cubs to resolve alleged violations of the Americans with Disabilities act at Wrigley Field. The Americans with Disabilities act requires that sports venues like Wrigley Field be accessible to people with disabilities, said Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clark of the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division. The Justice Department is committed to ensuring that people with disabilities have full and equal access to public accommodations, including our ballparks.
[00:08:32] I am not sure, but I think all of us Cub fans should be considered disabled in one way or another. Disabled from having a winning team. Here's the top three stories from Thursday's JLN. Wednesday's most read story was the Wall Street Journal story meet the Wall Street Bigwig who has become Trump's headhunter in chief. Our second most read story was from punch Cards to Crypto One Man's Journey through Wall Street's Tech Revolution, from John Lothian News. Third was CME Wins Futures Commission Merchant Approval sparking backlash from Bloomberg via Yahoo News. Here are the top three stories from the lead section of today's jln. The first story is from Markets Media. The Desk Markets Media acquires Trader TV to form multimedia capital markets giant Global capital markets publisher Markets Media Group has acquired Trader tv, the leading online trading TV provider, to form a multimedia giant spanning the U.S. europe and Asia Pacific.
[00:09:44] Trader TV adds nearly a decade of video and podcast capabilities to Markets Media's offering, allowing us to reach capital markets professionals and every medium, says Moham Verde, CEO of Markets Media. Bringing live, recorded and in event video will ensure our audience gets the best access to information however they want to consume it.
[00:10:13] Here's another story. This one is from Bloomberg. The headline Nasdaq and CBOE Challenge SEC over New Stock Trading Rule Exchanges say changes could affect pricing and hurt investors US Regulator has had Passed new rule altering economics of Trading Nasdaq and Siebel Global Markets Inc. Two of the biggest stock exchanges, challenged a new U.S. securities and Exchange Commission rule that changes the economic structure of how stocks trade. The firms asked a court to review the SEC's recently finalized National Market Structure regulation, also known as Reg nms, according to a petition which they said was lodged with a United States appeals court in Washington.
[00:11:06] And then finally, here's another story. This one from the Wall Street Journal the headline Betting markets tend to get elections right. With some notable exceptions, the accuracy of betting markets has become a politically loaded question.
[00:11:22] Betting markets show former President Donald Trump has a roughly 60% chance of beating Vice President Kamala Harris next week. Should they be trusted? History suggests that betting markets have generally been good forecasters of U.S. elections. More often than not, the presidential candidate with the best odds before Election Day goes on to take the White House.
[00:11:47] We are grateful for your attentive listening to the John Lothian News Daily Update. Please spread the word about our podcast among your friends. We would greatly appreciate it if you could spare a moment to leave a review on Apple Podcasts or whatever platform upon which you access this podcast. Your reviews play a crucial role in introducing our content to new listeners. Also, if you haven't subscribed to the daily John Lothian Newsletter, email yet, you can Enjoy a complimentary 90 day trial by visiting john lothianws.com trial thank you for your valued support. Have a great day and stay safe and treat people the same way you want to be treated with respect, equality and justice. This has been John Lothian Goodbye. This podcast has been produced by Andrew Lothian.
