Episode Transcript
[00:00:06] Welcome to the John Lothian News daily Update podcast for September 27, 2024. I am your host, John Lothian. This podcast is brought to you by John Lothian News, the home of Marketswickie and Marketswicky Education. Thank you for joining us. Here are the hits and takes cabinets from today's JLN.
[00:00:27] Shigeru Ishiba has been elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, and is set to become the next prime minister, succeeding Fumio Kushida, the Financial Times reported.
[00:00:46] A former defense and agriculture minister is known for his hawkish stance on China and his desire for a more balanced defense relationship with the US. His victory led to a surge in the yen and a decline in the Nikki 225 futures. Reflecting mixed market reactions, a Shibas focus includes strengthening Japan's military, addressing deflation risks, and potentially creating a ministry for disaster management. Despite his long career in politics, this win marks his fifth attempt at securing the LDP leadership.
[00:01:27] Secretary of state Anthony Blinken, speaking at the UN General assembly, emphasized the US's commitment to ensuring that AI is developed and used in ways that are safe, secure and beneficial globally. He highlighted the US's efforts to work with partners through initiatives like the Freedom Online coalition to establish global standards for AI, combat digital surveillance and counter disinformation. The US also aims to make AI more inclusive by partnering with major tech companies to expand access to AI resources, particularly in developing countries, and to enhance training and create localized data sets. Blinken announced a new public private partnership and over $100 million in commitments to support these goals, stressing the importance of global cooperation and harnessing AI for good. The FTS Lex column has a commentary titled Lex Rivals are not the only reason for CME's lost luster. Unfortunately, I don't have access to this feature, so I can't share what it said. Michelle Neal, head of markets group at the federal Reserve bank of New York, will keynote FIAs Treasury Clearing Forum in New York on October 15. The event will feature senior executives from clearing houses, banks, asset managers, hedge funds and trading firms. Discussions will focus on the development of clearing models ahead of mandatory clearing, the practical implications of treasury clearing, and how firms can prepare for upcoming changes. A recent study by ELM Partners Management, titled when a crystal ball isnt enough to make you rich revealed that even with advanced knowledge of major economic events such as Federal Reserve decisions, traders struggled to consistently profit, Bloomberg reported. The study involved participants with varying levels of financial experience who were given early access to economic news before placing their trades. The results showed that even seasoned traders only correctly predicted market directions 63% of the time, while amateur traders fared worse, often losing money due to poor leverage and trade sizing decisions. The study underscores the difficulty of beating the market even with inside information and highlights efficiency of the financial markets. The list of recently updated pages on markets Wiki Sergei Sergeivich Ivanov Cryptex US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control Ayton Goleman, Douglas Tillett Elx Markets Fraud US Federal Bureau of Investigation US Department of Justice US Department of the Treasury Richard H. Redding, Charles Zhengja Lee, Joseph Guinan, John H. Stassen, Cantor Fitzgerald Exchange LP, FMX Futures Exchange, Clear Street, Sharon Brown Kruska, Vlad Tenoff, James Catullus, GameStop Short squeeze, Carolyn Ellison, Robert Allen, Robin Hood and Terry Belton. The list of new pages on markets wiki includes Sergey Sergeivich Ivanov, US Department of Justice, US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, Cryptex, GameStop short squeeze Robert Allen, Vlad Tenov, whistleblower Daniel Coe, rich Winter ice voice, Bestx research Hitesh Matal, Vasco Souza, Patty Palladino, Rich Robinson securities lending velocity clearing Craig Resnick, Henry Blodgett, Jamie Heller, Business insider Robert LD. Colby Marsha, Eta Asquith CFTC Office of International Affairs Melanie T. Devoe, CFTC officer of Customer Outreach and Education Prometheum Inc. Prometheum Ember Capital LLC, Lotus Markets and David Clark here are excerpts from in front of Fow's paywall from some recent stories Singapore Exchange GX is set to enhance market transparency by publishing detailed commodity derivatives exposure reports next week, focusing on its most traded markets. Meanwhile, CIFMA has advocated for the inclusion of additional derivatives exemptions in the revised US Basel II rules to benefit derivatives users. Experts are calling for better benchmarks in the commodities markets to support the energy transition and emphasize the importance of maintaining optionality in low carbon fuels for the shipping industry. In other news, several new us equity and index derivatives have started trading, and Merricks has acquired a minority stake in a canadian carbon firm, key carbonous. Lastly, there is increasing liquidity in freight derivatives, although regulatory frameworks for emissions remain insufficient. The National Futures association has released its latest board update, which highlights key topics from their August meeting. The video discusses NFAs recent testimony before the US houses Agriculture Committees subcommittee on Commodity markets, digital assets and rural development. It also covers NFA's organizational culture, updates on digital assets and details about the upcoming fiscal year 2024 Innovation Days event. The NFA and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission are hosting a free webinar titled Protecting Yourself. NFA and CFTC investor resources as part of the International Organization of Security Commissions, or IAscos 8th annual World Investor Week. The webinar, scheduled for October 9, will focus on recognizing investment fraud, verifying the credentials of investment professionals, and conducting proper due diligence before making investment decisions. The event aims to educate investors on safeguarding themselves against financial scams. You can register with the link in today's newsletter. Volume on FMX yesterday was two contracts of the three month sofa futures December 24 futures. See the FMX daily trade report page for details there. Longtime NYSE member Kenny Pokhari is now a partner as well as the chief market strategist at the Slate stone wealth he shared on LinkedIn.
[00:09:14] Maggie Smith, the iconic british actress known for her remarkable roles on stage and screen, passed away at 89 in London, the New York Times reported. Celebrated for her diverse performances, Smith earned numerous accolades throughout her career, including two oscars, multiple Tony awards and several Baftas. Her fame skyrocketed with her portrayal of the sharp tongued dowager Countess in Downton Abbey, making her a household name later in life. Despite her success, Smith remained modest, often shunning the limelight. Her career spanned from early roles like the prime of Miss Jean Brody to her memorable appearances in the Harry Potter series as Professor McGonagall. Smith's passing marks the end of an era in both british and global cinema.
[00:10:18] Our most read stories from our previous edition of JLN options were bitcoin climbs past 65,000 ahead of $5.8 billion option expiry from Bloomberg, TCW backtracks an ETF conversion plan from the Financial Times and JP Morgan rises on tide of active ETF's from Morningstar.
[00:10:44] Subscribe to the free JLN Options newsletter with a link in today's JLN. Here are more stories from the first read section of today's JLN from Bloomberg deadly Helene unleashes floods and knocks out power to millions storm struck Florida as a category hurricane late Thursday. More than 5.2 million people face downpours across the US.
[00:11:12] Tropical Storm Helene is triggering dangerous rain and flooding across the US south, where it has killed at least four people and cut power to nearly 4 million customers after coming ashore in Florida as a major hurricane. More than 5.2 million people face a moderate or high risk of excessive rain Friday as Helene, with rains of 60 mph that's 97, pushes inland, said Scott Kebauer, a forecaster at the US Weather Prediction center. The heaviest range will now be shifting into Tennessee and Kentucky after pummeling portions of Georgia and the Carolinas my comment lots of power out in Florida and Georgia, including Sarasota. My power company says I have power. I don't know when to head down there, but it won't be tomorrow.
[00:12:11] Here's another story from Bloomberg. The headline sports betting apps are even more toxic than you thought. Pro bettors have taken to disguising themselves as gambling addicts, so sportsbooks keep the free money flowing.
[00:12:26] Among the main challenges for a pro batter is finding places that will take your money. If you show signs of being good, or even just highly methodical, most sportsbooks will drastically limit how much you can wager. But there are ways around this. Sharps, as prose are known, often employ surrogates to place bets on their behalf in exchange for a share of the winnings. Or they prime their accounts by making wagers that a casual bettor or square typically would. If I open an account in New York, maybe for a few weeks, I just bet the Yankees right before the game begins, says Rufus Peabody, a pro bettor and co host of Bet the Process podcast. If this trick works, the book sees these normy hometown bets as a sign that it's safe to raise his limits. That gives Peabody a bigger purse to work with when he switches to making bets he thinks that will pay out and that the book will likely recognize as coming from a skilled player. The idea is to win as much as you can before the house catches on my comment it seems to me the customers are spoofing the house to disguise their identity as pros. Where is Dodd Frank when you need it? Here are the top three stories from Thursday's JLN our top story Thursday was Bloomberg's biggest futures trade on record, notched in sofer market. Second was the picture of the cars from the Boy Scouts of America pathway to adventure Council Pinewood Derby Race on Wednesday. Third was the daily FMX Futures exchange, price volume and open interest from the newly launched FMX exchange. Here are the top three stories from the lead section of todays JLN. Heres a story from the Wall Street Journal what Wall Streets women pioneers had to put up with the untold battles of women in finance who broke into the old boys club and stayed. When women first arrived on Wall street in the 1950s and sixties, there was a playbook they were expected to follow if they wanted any chance of success. Wall street was still centered around actual Wall Street, a compact area with not only the major firm JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, but also many smaller brokerage houses, a veritable army of female secretaries, teletypists and data entry clerks would pour out of of the subways in the early morning, daring to enter this male bastion in heels and skirt. Those who started to climb the ladder usually found their foothold in the smaller firms. They put up with a lot, none of it subtle, all of it exacerbated by the too martini lunch.
[00:15:36] Here's another story, this one from Bloomberg.
[00:15:39] Chinas biggest stock buying frenzy in years overwhelms exchange chinese equities kept their biggest weekly rally since 2008 with a burst of trading that overwhelmed the Shanghai stock exchange, underscoring a dramatic shift in investor sentiment after Xi Jinping government ramped up economic stimulus in an echo of the rally that followed Chinas massive stimulus during the global financial crisis, the CSI 300 index of large cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday, bringing this weeks gain to 16%. Trading activity was so intense that it led to glitches and delays in processing orders, according to people familiar with the matter. The Shanghai exchange said it was investigating the issues without elaborating. Here's one more story, this one from Bloomberg the headline Britain is preparing to make t one switch in 2027 without the EU latest technical report raises prospect of UK switching first industry groups are pushing for a coordinated transition. The group spearheading the UK's shift to a faster trading regime is preparing for the possibility that the country makes the switch in advance of the European Union, a move that could create a litany of headaches for financial professionals across the region. The UK will follow the US to the one day settlement cycle, known as T one, in the final quarter of 2027, according to Andrew Douglas, chair of the government appointed team advising on the shift. In a report published Friday, the group set out its vision for how firms should prepare. An exact transition date will be published in January, Douglas said.
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