Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Foreign welcome to the John Lothian News Daily Update podcast for November 7, 2024. I am your host, John Lothian. This podcast is brought to you by John Lothian News, the home of MarketsWiki and MarketsWith Education. Thank you for joining us. Here are the hits and takes comments from today's JLN Interactive Brokers reported a strong performance for its Forecast X Prediction market, launched on October 4, 2024 with over $560 million in presidential election contracts traded by November 6, 2024 and no technical issues. Forecast X election contracts provided real time public sentiment indicators while the broader Forecast Cast Trader platform also offered contracts on economic, environmental and government issues. On election night, Interactive Brokers recorded a significant spike in overnight trading with 349,910 total trades, including 188,168 U.S. stock trades and 161,742 U.S. derivatives trades from 8pm to 4am Eastern time. There was an error by Thomas Peterfi in the interview I did with him about Forecast X where he mentions his competitor Kalshi. He said there is, quote, a foreign corporation that guarantees their contracts, unquote Kelshi Clear LLC is the CFTC Registered designated clearing organization with the principal address of 594 Broadway, New York, NY and is 100% owned by Kelshy Clear Inc. Which is 100% owned by Kenshy Inc. All of them have the same address in New York. Kelshi Clear LLC is registered by the State of Delaware. You can see all of the Cow She Clear registration documents on the CFTC website with a link in today's newsletter. While Cali is primarily privately held, it has received funding from notable investors including Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis and Y Combinator. Y Combinator, often abbreviated as yc, is a well known startup accelerator based in the United States that funds early stage companies. Founded in 2005 by Paul Graham, Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris and Trevor Blackwell, Y Combinator provides seed funding, mentorship and resources to startups in exchange for a small equity equity stake, usually around 7%. CFTC chairman Rostam Benham will join an international panel on the role of the regulator in a global securities market at the CNMV's 35th anniversary celebration. The panel will take place on Friday, November 8, 2024 from 12:10 to 1:00pm CET at the CSIC Events hall in Madrid, Spain.
[00:03:39] The Financial Times has added articles to its special report on AI. The new stories included are why it is too soon to call the hype on AI's productivity promise the doctors pioneering the use of AI to improve outcomes for patients and employers look to AI tools to plug a skills gap and retain staff. Here are the headlines from in front of fow's Paywall from some recent stories Marex raised its guidance as revenue rises a third bond trading pioneer McVie to step down as market access chair Tradition data creates global product role after string of data appointments Analysis Bitcoin derivatives trading spikes amid election led rally research European energy Exchange power volumes up 48% last month and analysis Eurex tracks progress one year into euro interest rate drive the FIA has asked me to moderate a panel at the upcoming FIA Expo in Chicago. The session is titled Retail markets beyond the U.S. and will be held on Tuesday, November 19th from 1:45pm to 2:15pm on the exhibit hall stage. Joining me will be Claudio Jacob, managing director at B3 and Suram Krishnan, Chief Business Development Officer at the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
[00:05:25] Our most read stories from our previous edition of Jail and Options were Gareth Roberts from James Proudluck via LinkedIn Wall street fear index plummets as Trump win crushes market volatility From Barron's and CME's customers criticized Futures Exchange after it wins approval to act as broker from the Financial Times. Subscribe to the free JLN Options newsletter with a link in today's jln. Here are more stories from the first Read section of today's Here's a sponsored content message from our friends at JPX FIA Forum Tokyo 2024 held at JPX together with FIA and FIA Japan, OSE successfully hosted the FIA Tokyo Forum on October 10, 2024 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The event welcomed over 220 attendees representing more than 100 companies. The program opened with remarks from Mr. Nakaso, Chairman of Fin City Tokyo, and Mr. Yokoyama, President and CEO of OSE. These introductions were followed by two engaging panel discussions and an insightful address by Mr. Ito, Commissioner of the Financial Services Agency. During the panel discussions, industry leaders from global exchanges and brokerages shared their perspectives on the Japanese market and their development plans. They also explored practical applications of OSE's recent innovations in the interest rates market, including the newly launched three month ton of futures. Mr. Kazuhisu Kakahazaki, Executive Officer of OSCE TOCOM joined a panel to discuss JPX's production advancements. He highlighted developments such as the three month ton of futures, Tokom electricity futures and the revival of the single stock options market. For further details, please refer to a link in today's newsletter.
[00:07:48] And then here's this interview I did.
[00:07:52] And then here's an interview I did the Crypto Skeptic who Went down the Rabbit Hole On a crisp autumn morning in Brooklyn, Zeke Faux sat in his home office in front of a Zoom virtual background featuring a mocked up gold cryptocurrency coin with Sam Bankman Fried's profile on it and inscribed with a Latin phrase Faux described as an Easter egg that means it is worth nothing. The Bloomberg Investigative Reporter had just released a paper back version of his first book number Go Up, a searing expose of the cryptocurrency world that has already made waves in financial circles. A chapter is included in the paperback edition that contains new information since the hardback edition was released just before Bankman Fried went on trial. But Faukes journey into the heart of cryptomania wasn't one he initially sought out. Here's another story. This is one from MSN CME purse climbing to $4 million record $4 million to winner the season ending CME Group Tour Championship will have an $11 million purse and a record $4 million winners check in 2024, the LPGA announced Wednesday. The runner up for next year's event in Naples, Florida will receive $1 million, with every competitor in the 60 player field earning at least $55,000 beginning next year. The CME Group Tour Championship's $11 million purse will be the highest on the LPGA Tour and the $4 million first place prize will be the largest single purse in women's sports, cme Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said in a news release.
[00:09:50] Both of these developments will make our event even more exciting for players and spectators while bringing more parody to the game. The CME Group has extended its sponsorship of the Tour championship through 2025. My comment is there a reason the successful sponsorship only goes through 2025?
[00:10:13] Here's another story, this one from Engadget. The headline Google accidentally leaked a preview of its Jarvis AI that can take over computers. The software was available for a brief time on the Chrome Web Store.
[00:10:29] Google Jarvis is real. Google's new AI prototype accidentally found its way to the public through the Chrome Web Store. This isn't just some AI helper that can tell you the weather or remind you about doctor appointments. The information reported that the store page describes the Jarvis prototype as a helpful companion that surfs the web for you through web browsers to take care of common tasks such as buying groceries, booking flights and research topics. In other words, Google's new AI has the ability to take control of a computer to complete these simple tasks without manual human input. The prototype that popped up on Google's extension store wasn't in full working mode. A reporter tried to use Jarvis, but access permissions prevented the app from performing any functions. My comment it is not Jarvis I am afraid of, it is Ultron.
[00:11:42] Here's another story, this one from Bloomberg. The headline you want volatility? Here's some volatility on this episode of Trillions. We introduce you to the Ghost Pepper of Bitcoin tied Exchange traded funds, one of the year's hottest investment bitcoin, which has surged on exchange traded fund adoption as well as the return of the Trump trade. One way to go especially big on that bat is two new leveraged ETFs, MSTX and MSTU, which are two times micro strategy, a company that's already a highly exposed bitcoin proxy. Both ETFs effectively give investors a forex exposure to bitcoin. If that sounds volatile, it is.
[00:12:34] MSTX is the most volatile ETF in the us. Consider this space the ghost pepper of hot sauces. My comment if someone hands you a ghost pepper, let them try it first and second, here's another story, this one from the Wall Street Journal. The headline Financial Guru, TV Star, Best Selling Author not so fast. The marketing that some financial advisors use to attract clients can be misleading. Make sure you don't fall for their trust washing.
[00:13:08] If financial advisors can't earn trust, they can buy it in a confused and crowded marketplace with no objective criteria for measuring the honesty and competence of financial advisors. Those who seem trustworthy will capture clients. Sadly, much of the marketing that advisors use to earn investors trust is misleading, including TV appearances that they didn't make, books they didn't write, and standards of ethics they didn't meet. I call this trust washing. This tarnishes the many advisors who deserve the public's trust and the millions of people who could benefit from professional financial advice. Can't tell for sure who's trustworthy. My commentary this is your word of the day Trustwashing. Here are the top three stories from Wednesday's JLN. Our most clicked item on Wednesday was James Proudluck's post on LinkedIn announcing that Gareth Roberts, a great friend and colleague to many in the futures industry, passed away suddenly last Friday. Condolences to all who knew Gareth Roberts. Second was Peak 6 sell stake in Premier League Wolfhampton War Wanderers From Bloomberg and third was analysis Buy side adoption key for Eurox's credit FX plans from FoW Here are the top four stories from the lead section of today's GLN. The first story is from Bloomberg.
[00:14:46] Trump Win Boosts prediction markets that nailed election outcome Betting websites that allow wagers on political outcomes had the former president as the heavy favorite leading into Tuesday's vote, even as traditional polls showed a razor thin margin. As Donald Trump's victory in the US Presidential election became clearer Wednesday, so did the power of betting websites to predict political outcomes. For weeks leading up to the contest, prediction websites were cited and often questioned for showing the former president as a heavy favorite over Kamala Harris, even as poll after poll pegged it as a toss up race. In the end, the betting markets won and with the election seen particularly in finance circles as a referendum on the relative power of polls and these platforms, betting websites will now no doubt take on an even greater error of market powered invincibility.
[00:15:55] Here's another story, this one from Bloomberg. The headline French Regulator examines Poly market after Crypto Bets on Trump Inquiry follows publicity around French traders huge bets Online gambling and betting is tightly regulated in France. France's gambling regulator is examining the operations of cryptocurrency based prediction market platform Polymarket to see if it complies with local rules following a surge in user demand around the US Presidential election. We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operations, cooperation and compliance with French gambling legislation, an authority national de joux, a spokesperson said for the regulator, told Bloomberg News on Thursday. The ANJ is expected to ban access to polymarket for French users, crypto news outlet the Big Whale reported late Wednesday.
[00:17:01] Here's another story, this one from the Wall Street Journal. The headline the scramble is on to fill out Trump's Cabinet President Elect's transition team sorts through spreadsheets, his allies float names President Elect Donald Trump and his senior advisers are privately assembling short lists of candidates for top jobs in the upcoming in the incoming administration. From Wall Street Chief of Staff to Treasury Secretary, the Republicans decisive victory in Tuesday's election set off a roughly 10 week scramble to vet and sign off on top staffing picks before Inauguration Day, after which the soon to be GOP controlled Senate can consider nominations. The party's majority is the chamber will ensure a smoother confirmation process for many of Trump's picks, whose fate will be decided by a simple majority vote. Trump's transition team, led by co chair Howard Lutnick who is overseeing personnel, has put together spreadsheets with names for the former president to consider. The transition team is working with outside firm firms to vet early frontrunners, people briefed on the situation said. Here's another story, this one from the Wall Street Journal. The headline how the Trump Whale correctly called the election the mystery trader who called himself Theo is on track for a payday of nearly $50 million.
[00:18:44] The mystery trader known as the Trump whale is set to reap almost US$50 million in profit after running the table on a series of bold bets tied to the presidential election. Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote in an outcome that many political observers saw as unlikely. Theo, as the traitor called himself, also bet that Trump would win the Blue Wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin we're grateful for your attentive listening to the John Lothian News Daily Update.
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[00:20:04] Have a great day and stay Stay safe and treat people the same way you want to be treated with respect, equality and justice. This has been John Lothian Goodbye. This podcast has been produced by Andrew Lothian.
